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Tag Archives: VIX

CFTC Reproposes Position Limits, Adopts Aggregation Regulations; Some Thoughts by OCC on Risk Management; VIX Falls 14% But Futures Signal Market Turbulence in 2017 Newsletter,Options

Observations & Insight Challenging the Status Quo: Cinnober Aims To Break Into The Back Office Clearing Space Jim Kharouf – JLN There was a time when many thought there wasn’t really much of a market for full clearinghouse solutions with real time clearing and risk management. But in 2007 and 2008, Cinnober successfully pushed into the space and carved out a nice niche for itself, especially as the global financial crisis illustrated the intense need for such solutions. Now, the company is pushing into the established space of back office clearing for clearing member banks and brokers. That space is…

Sectors Go Wild: S&P 500 Correlations Crumble; Clearinghouses Park Billions in New Fed Accounts; Yuan Options Most Bearish Since June as Traders See Sharper Drop Newsletter,Options

Observations & Insight Holiday Publishing Note Due to Thanksgiving, we will not be publishing this newsletter on Thursday or Friday. We will be back on Monday, albeit a few pounds heavier. A quick “Did you know?” about the holiday: Everybody has heard the old refrain that eating turkey makes people tired because of the amino acid tryptophan. However, turkey has pretty much the same amount of tryptophan as other meats and research shows that turkey doesn’t have any significant effect on drowsiness. In fact, simple overeating is the most common cause of post-meal lethargy. Tired or not, enjoy your Thanksgiving,…

Options Signaling Momentum to Drive Stocks Higher; Options Say Italian Referendum Won’t Jolt Stocks Across Europe; Guess What Day It Is! It’s FOMC Day! Newsletter,Options

Lead Stories Options Signaling Momentum to Drive Stocks Higher Gunjan Banerji – WSJ Options that allow investors to wager on the S&P 500 are suggesting that the benchmark could keep setting fresh records. A post-election rally sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average above the 19,000-level this morning for the first time ever, as the S&P 500 breached the 2,200 threshold. Four major equity benchmarks hit all-time highs yesterday. bit.ly/2fCblTH ****SD: TD Ameritrade’s Ticker Tape has the skinny on recent market action – Record Run Continues, Driven By Oil Ahead of Possible Output Cut Options Say Italian Referendum Won’t Jolt Stocks…

The U.S. Dollar Replaces a Broken VIX Index; Tail risks wagging the dog with Wall Street fear gauge; Oil Bets Are Biggest in 9 Years Amid OPEC, Trump Volatility Newsletter,Options

Lead Stories The U.S. Dollar Replaces a Broken VIX Index Brian Kelly – RealClearMarkets The VIX Index is broken. It no longer provides an accurate measure of the amount of leverage in the financial system. This poses a problem because central bankers, regulators, policy makers and economic forecasters all use the VIX as a the central measure of leverage. bit.ly/2fxPU68 Tail risks wagging the dog with Wall Street fear gauge Miles Johnson – Financial Times When a man goes bankrupt it happens in two ways: first gradually, then suddenly. Those who look to financial markets for meaningful information about the…

Ding-dong the VIX is dead (but risk is rising); Europe is ‘unlikely’ to seize euro-based clearing from London, says S&P; Yellen Signals Fed Remains Likely to Raise Rates Next Month Newsletter,Options

Lead Stories Ding-dong the VIX is dead (but risk is rising) James Saft – Reuters The VIX, the so-called fear gauge, is dead but the real risk-appetite index is falling. The dollar is the new and true North Star of global markets, according to a study released on Tuesday by the Bank for International Settlements, with a rising dollar coinciding with falling risk tolerance. This just in time for the Trump era, widely expected to bring with it rising inflation and interest rates driving a rising dollar. /goo.gl/UckqBt ****SD: Maybe people always inferred too much from the VIX? Whatever the…

Oil Options Traders Buy Record Bullish Contracts Amid OPEC Moves; Options Back in Vogue as Uncertainty Permeates Global Markets; SEC Approves Consolidated Audit Trail to Detect Market Manipulation Newsletter,Options

Lead Stories Oil Options Traders Buy Record Bullish Contracts Amid OPEC Moves Javier Blas, John Deane and Brian Wingfield – Bloomberg Oil investors traded a record number of bullish options contracts for benchmark U.S. crude, a signal that the market is positioning for a potential OPEC deal to limit production and boost prices. The total volume of calls giving investors the right purchase West Texas Intermediate crude rose to the equivalent of 303 million barrels on Tuesday, according to preliminary CME Group Inc. data compiled by Bloomberg. That far exceeded a prior record of 221 million, set five and a…

Dollar Is New Fear Index as Easing Renders VIX Useless, BIS Says; Nasdaq’s new CEO faces challenge as industry goes supersize; Traders Salivate as Volatility Returns Newsletter,Options

Observations & Insight A Basel netting issue: Pushing for less burdensome capital requirements in the options market Spencer Doar – JLN The unintended consequences of financial regulation have been seeping into the markets since the first rule was made in the wake of the financial crisis. One prime example is the leverage ratio, which determines the required capital of general clearing members. The actual calculation of the capital requirement within the Basel III leverage ratio framework is a particular sticking point for the OCC. Right now, the Current Exposure Method (CEM) is used in the calculation, whereas the OCC and…

Volatility slump defies election shock; Independent US oil producers increase hedges for 2017; Profiles in Uncertainty – Election Night Lesson in Market Dynamics Newsletter,Options

Observations & Insight How we talk Jim Kharouf – JLN My column yesterday, What Just Happened about the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States struck a chord with readers. We received more reader feedback on this column than we have in some time, some negative, some supportive. Here are a few. “Thanks for this insightful OpEd. You articulated so many feelings I’m still trying to process.” And this: Wow, what an ignorant, cheap shot to smear nearly 60 million Americans that way. Deplorables, right? As a life-long New Yorker, I’ve watched Trump in action…

Hedges Hold as Global Markets Need Six Hours to Process Panic; Financial Models Go Haywire as ‘Tail-Risk Trump’ Lives Up to His Name; Wall Street rallies in volatile post-U.S. election trading Newsletter,Options

Observations & Insight What Just Happened? By Jim Kharouf, JLN It was after midnight and the realization that Donald Trump is going to be president of the United States stunned, saddened and angered me. This is what our great country has descended to – a nation of angry white people who voted more than the brown and black people. It’s quite simple really – more people loved Trump’s hate and BS than believed Hillary Clinton’s boring establishment BS. And so, here we are, on the precipice of all that is right with democracy and wrong with America. We’ll rationalize it…